Archive - Paper Economy

Thoughts on “thinking” about the Roman Empire.

Sep 28, 2023 •

February 2023

Not the Right Man for the Job

For a brief moment, Fed Chair Powell was truly leading the with real backbone, but that moment faded nearly as fast as it had originally materialized.

Feb 13, 2023 •

November 2022

Time to "Rightsize" the Economy for a Reality-Based Future

As we leave the delusional "Everything Bubble" years far behind, getting "back to basics" will be difficult but ultimately a healthy trend towards a…

Nov 28, 2022 •

October 2022

Action and Inaction

The Fed created our current bout of runway inflation and only they can contain it, but to do so, they have to go big... Really big.

Oct 17, 2022 •

August 2022

FHFA Purchase Only House Price Index – What Goes Up, Must Come Down

The spectacular home price surge seen in the wake of the anomalous pandemic economic period is now beginning to abruptly reverse.

Aug 30, 2022 •

July 2022

The Inflation Conflagration

Given that the Fed's own reckless monetary policy is the source of today's inflation, will they finally show some responsibility and fight the rising…

Jul 14, 2022 •

Forecasting the Coming Housing Collapse

Home prices have, yet again, been recklessly pumped up by the Fed's own "easy money" monetary policy leading to an even larger disconnect from…

Jul 11, 2022 •

The Real Great Recession

The cost of the Fed and the Federal government's reckless response to 2008's "Great Recession" is finally coming due and with it, bringing a new even…

Jul 6, 2022 •

A Real Mean Reversion

The housing run-up post-COVID panic was so absurd that even highly qualified buyers with loans made using traditionally sound lending standards are in…

Jul 5, 2022 •

June 2022

Reflecting on Rates

The Fed is way behind the curve on the battle against surging inflation; either they want to fight or they don't, but tepid rate action is not a…

Jun 29, 2022 •

Jumbo Loans, Jumbo Problems

Something is askew in the Jumbo home loan lending market and, as interest rates quickly reset upward, risks abound.

Jun 28, 2022 •

Durable Goods Orders – Consumer Demand Destruction Imminent

Today’s release of the Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders Report (M3) showed that new orders for manufactured durable goods…

Jun 27, 2022 •

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