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November 2022
Time to "Rightsize" the Economy for a Reality-Based Future
As we leave the delusional "Everything Bubble" years far behind, getting "back to basics" will be difficult but ultimately a healthy trend towards a…
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October 2022
Action and Inaction
The Fed created our current bout of runway inflation and only they can contain it, but to do so, they have to go big... Really big.
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August 2022
FHFA Purchase Only House Price Index – What Goes Up, Must Come Down
The spectacular home price surge seen in the wake of the anomalous pandemic economic period is now beginning to abruptly reverse.
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July 2022
The Inflation Conflagration
Given that the Fed's own reckless monetary policy is the source of today's inflation, will they finally show some responsibility and fight the rising…
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2
Forecasting the Coming Housing Collapse
Home prices have, yet again, been recklessly pumped up by the Fed's own "easy money" monetary policy leading to an even larger disconnect from…
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2
The Real Great Recession
The cost of the Fed and the Federal government's reckless response to 2008's "Great Recession" is finally coming due and with it, bringing a new even…
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4
A Real Mean Reversion
The housing run-up post-COVID panic was so absurd that even highly qualified buyers with loans made using traditionally sound lending standards are in…
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12
June 2022
Reflecting on Rates
The Fed is way behind the curve on the battle against surging inflation; either they want to fight or they don't, but tepid rate action is not a…
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Jumbo Loans, Jumbo Problems
Something is askew in the Jumbo home loan lending market and, as interest rates quickly reset upward, risks abound.
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1
Durable Goods Orders – Consumer Demand Destruction Imminent
Today’s release of the Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders Report (M3) showed that new orders for manufactured durable goods…
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Reflation Gave Way to Inflation
It is surprising how many macroeconomic commentators propagate the false notion that “quantitative easing doesn’t cause inflation” typically offering up…
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