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Forecasting the Coming Housing Collapse
Home prices have, yet again, been recklessly pumped up by the Fed's own "easy money" monetary policy leading to an even larger disconnect from…
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Jul 11
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Forecasting the Coming Housing Collapse
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A Real Mean Reversion
The housing run-up post-COVID panic was so absurd that even highly qualified buyers with loans made using traditionally sound lending standards are in…
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Jul 5
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A Real Mean Reversion
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Jumbo Loans, Jumbo Problems
Something is askew in the Jumbo home loan lending market and, as interest rates quickly reset upward, risks abound.
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Jun 28
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Jumbo Loans, Jumbo Problems
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The Great Moderation Gives Way to the Great Agitation
When Ben Bernanke in 2004 (prior to his chairmanship but as a Fed governor) detailed his thoughts on the various causes of the “Great Moderation” to the…
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Jun 13
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The Great Moderation Gives Way to the Great Agitation
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The Inflation Conflagration
Given that the Fed's own reckless monetary policy is the source of today's inflation, will they finally show some responsibility and fight the rising…
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Jul 14
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The Inflation Conflagration
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The Real Great Recession
The cost of the Fed and the Federal government's reckless response to 2008's "Great Recession" is finally coming due and with it, bringing a new even…
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Jul 6
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The Real Great Recession
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Bubbles and History, Harshly Rhyming
Mark Twain’s old adage that “History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” by my reckoning has never been more accurate with respect to the…
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May 9
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Bubbles and History, Harshly Rhyming
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The Last Kicked Can
Economist Herbert Stein's old adage that “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop", puts our current predicament into perspective perfectly. Our…
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May 23
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The Last Kicked Can
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Reflecting on Rates
The Fed is way behind the curve on the battle against surging inflation; either they want to fight or they don't, but tepid rate action is not a…
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Jun 29
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Reflecting on Rates
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Now and Then – A ‘Tightwad’ at the Fed
While the current administration struggles to figure out their position on inflation, forcing Treasury Secretary and former Federal Reserve Chair Janet…
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Jun 1
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Now and Then – A ‘Tightwad’ at the Fed
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Reflation Gave Way to Inflation
It is surprising how many macroeconomic commentators propagate the false notion that “quantitative easing doesn’t cause inflation” typically offering up…
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Jun 22
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Reflation Gave Way to Inflation
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Countdown to Minsky Moment
Today, like 2007, the economic zeitgeist is marked by a palpable sense of significant headwinds and the uneasy feeling of oncoming disaster. True, the…
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Jun 7
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Countdown to Minsky Moment
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